Kenneth (kensmind) wrote in polloftheday,
Kenneth
kensmind
polloftheday

Predicting the 2012 US Election

Tuesday is election day in the United States. The president is decided by who wins a majority of the electoral college votes. Each state is awarded a certain number of electoral votes (calculated by the number of Senators from the state -2- plus the number of members of the House of Representatives in that state). There are a total of 538 electoral votes and the candidate who gets the most votes in a state wins that state's electoral college votes. A candidate needs to win 270 electoral votes to win the presidency.

Here is a map showing the current polling numbers. If a candidate has a lead of over 5% in a state, the state is shown as "leaning" to him and if his lead is over 10%, it is shown as a "likely" state for him. A lead of over 15% is shown as "solid" for that candidate.

RCPMapNov2

Poll #1876640 Election Prediction
This poll is closed.

Who will win the US Presidential election and with how many electoral votes?

Obama with 350 or more electoral votes
1(4.3%)
Obama between 325-349
0(0.0%)
Obama 315-324
0(0.0%)
Obama 305-314
2(8.7%)
Obama 295-304
1(4.3%)
Obama 285-294
4(17.4%)
Obama 275-284
6(26.1%)
Obama 270-274
6(26.1%)
Obama 269, Romney 269 (a tie)
0(0.0%)
Romney 270-274
0(0.0%)
Romney 275-284
1(4.3%)
Romney 285-294
1(4.3%)
Romney 295-304
0(0.0%)
Romney 305-314
0(0.0%)
Romney 315-324
1(4.3%)
Romney 325-349
0(0.0%)
Romney 350 or more
0(0.0%)
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