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Predicting the 2012 US Election 
4th-Nov-2012 08:59 am
Washington
Tuesday is election day in the United States. The president is decided by who wins a majority of the electoral college votes. Each state is awarded a certain number of electoral votes (calculated by the number of Senators from the state -2- plus the number of members of the House of Representatives in that state). There are a total of 538 electoral votes and the candidate who gets the most votes in a state wins that state's electoral college votes. A candidate needs to win 270 electoral votes to win the presidency.

Here is a map showing the current polling numbers. If a candidate has a lead of over 5% in a state, the state is shown as "leaning" to him and if his lead is over 10%, it is shown as a "likely" state for him. A lead of over 15% is shown as "solid" for that candidate.

RCPMapNov2

Poll #1876640 Election Prediction
This poll is closed.

Who will win the US Presidential election and with how many electoral votes?

Obama with 350 or more electoral votes
1(4.3%)
Obama between 325-349
0(0.0%)
Obama 315-324
0(0.0%)
Obama 305-314
2(8.7%)
Obama 295-304
1(4.3%)
Obama 285-294
4(17.4%)
Obama 275-284
6(26.1%)
Obama 270-274
6(26.1%)
Obama 269, Romney 269 (a tie)
0(0.0%)
Romney 270-274
0(0.0%)
Romney 275-284
1(4.3%)
Romney 285-294
1(4.3%)
Romney 295-304
0(0.0%)
Romney 305-314
0(0.0%)
Romney 315-324
1(4.3%)
Romney 325-349
0(0.0%)
Romney 350 or more
0(0.0%)
Comments 
5th-Nov-2012 10:52 am (UTC)
don't feel like doing any arithmetic this morning xD. Anyway I can tell you that if it was left to germans it would be clear as 92 % are for bama xD.

Anyway why do the US always have the election on the same date? , (Rather than day, as in Sunday, Here elections are on sundays)
5th-Nov-2012 04:39 pm (UTC)
This was set in colonial times and like pretty much everything else in the US constitution, it's practically impossible to change. An election date in November was seen as useful because, in that agrarian society, the harvest would have been completed and in theory the winter-like storms would not yet have begun (relevant in the days before paved roads and snowplows).

As you probably know, in most Parliamentary democracies, election dates are flexible, but here in some parts of Canada (like the province I live in) there's a move for fixed election dates to prevent the government in power from manipulating the election date to suit their political popularity and electability. I see pluses and minuses to both systems.
5th-Nov-2012 05:18 pm (UTC)
Hm Thats also interesting .
Here it is always sundays, and it is always in September.
I know (Or at least I am sure thats how it is) that in the UK the governing parties can set any date as a date for a general election.
5th-Nov-2012 05:17 pm (UTC)
I'm not sure that I understand what you're asking about the American election day?

The date of our elections changes but the day does not. We always have elections on the first Tuesday of November. This year it is the 6th.
5th-Nov-2012 05:22 pm (UTC)
Okay, so I got that part wrong. Still makes me wonder why tuesday of all days? prevent monday grumpiness? .
Reserve Sunday for church? .
As said here it is sunday because most people don't work at sundays so they are free to go to the polling station . Since everybody is registered to a place, here there is also no need to register for vote as you are registered automatically too.
It is interesting how different systems are all over the world, such as Australia for example having compulsory voting, ( I don't know if they have a fixed date)
5th-Nov-2012 05:28 pm (UTC)
I have often wondered why we vote on Tuesdays. According to the Internet it dates back to the 1800s, a time when Americans might need all day Monday to travel to their polling location. Interesting!

I personally don't mind as a graduate student with flexible hours, but I cannot imagine how inconvenient it must be to families juggling jobs and child care.

Fun and only semi-relevant fact: Employers here do not have to pay employees if they go to the polls during work hours, but they cannot take punitive action against an employee for voting during work time.
6th-Nov-2012 02:02 pm (UTC)
Ah. I guess that kind of explains why election day is the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November. That always seems like such a complicated way to schedule elections!
6th-Nov-2012 02:01 pm (UTC)
Now most (maybe all) states offer early voting, which gives voters weeks to vote. I voted over a week ago! It's so convenient, and unlike the regular election day I was able to choose the location and time that was most convenient for me.
10th-Nov-2012 06:53 pm (UTC)
Aw. None of us were right!
10th-Nov-2012 07:03 pm (UTC)
True, though some of us were more wrong than others. I guess we were all fooled by the polls into believing that it was going to be very very very very close.
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